本課程將以公部門如何進行計畫評估為主要授課內容，並輔以私部門之計畫評估，以因應私部門日漸參與公共服務計畫之評估需求。課程將依計畫參數確定性與否的假設，區分兩大授課內容。其一為確定下之成本效益分析，探討之評估方法將以折現後現金流量分析法為主；其二為不確定性下之成本效益分析，探討之評估方法將以決策分析與實體選擇權分析為主。擬探討之課題涵括成本與效益之定義、社會折現率、成本有效性、風險報酬率、加權平均資金成本、資本資產定價模式、多因子定價模式、機率性風險評估、選擇權評價模式等。討論之主體對象涵括運輸、電信、電力、水利、遊憩區、工業區、科學園區、運動場、展覽會場及各項公共服務等計畫。
The syllabus consists of 2 major blocks covering 4 interlocking topics.
Part I. Covers the elements of project evaluation in the context of certainty:
- Evaluation techniques for projects that exist more than 3 to 5 years. These feature the discounted cash flow analyses essential for any realistic assessment of significant public projects.
- Concepts for correctly modeling technically and economically efficient performance of projects. These derive from the economic notions of production and cost functions. These theoretical functions lose important technical realities, however, and need to be replaced by technical cost models derived from a deep understanding of the technical details of the project.
Part 2. Presents the techniques for analyzing projects in the context of uncertainty. These are:
- Decision and utility analysis. These two methods provide a coherent basis for determining the optimal value of possible choices in the design and management of a project and, thus, for determining an optimal choice. However, they do deal effectively with evaluation over time, because they do not support a way to do a discounted cash flow that properly accounts for changing patterns of risk.
- Real Options analysis, an integrated approach that not only properly deals appropriately with evaluation over time in risky situations but also pinpoints the value of specific project design elements. It thus gives decision-makers and planners the means to decide what kinds of flexibility to build into a project, and when to exercise these options. With sufficient data, real options analysis directly calculates the value of flexible choices. More generally, as demonstrated theoretically and by example applications, real options analysis of public projects requires approximate methods.